Japan PM Ratings Slide To 14 Pct As Election Looms

Support for Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has fallen to 14 percent, a survey showed on Tuesday, a level which could prompt his party to try to replace him ahead of an election the opposition looks increasingly likely to win.

The nationwide survey by the Asahi newspaper also showed 42 percent of voters plan to choose the novice opposition Democratic Party of Japan in an election that must be held by October. That compares with 22 percent who would opt for Aso's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The figures were the latest sign the LDP could be ousted after ruling Japan for most of the past half-century, and are likely to further fray Aso's control over the LDP as he struggles with an economy falling deeper into recession.

The Democrats have pledged to reduce bureaucratic control over policy, reduce social gaps and adopt a diplomatic stance more independent of Washington if it ends the LDP's rule.

"If it doesn't look like the LDP will win, individual members of parliament ... will increasingly distance themselves from the unpopular Aso and the party will become ungovernable," said Koichi Nakano, a professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

"I don't think Aso has any means to increase his support. It's a question of basic likeability and trust in his ability, and that has completely evaporated."

Support for Aso's cabinet had been hovering below 20 percent in recent months after a series of policy flip-flops and gaffes.

One former minister has bolted the LDP, a junior minister threatened to step down but changed his mind on Tuesday, and other potential defectors are taking a wait-and-see stance.

It is the worst rating for Aso since the LDP turned to him last September in hopes he could lead it to victory in an election for parliament's lower house, and the worst for any Japanese premier since the 9 percent logged by Yoshiro Mori in February 2001, the Asahi said. Mori resigned within months.

PARADE OF PREMIERS

A survey by the conservative Yomiuri newspaper also published on Tuesday showed backing for Aso at 19.7 percent from 20.4 percent.

"My job is to properly implement the economic policies we have put forth, not to analyse my support rate," Aso told reporters later in the day.

Aso has been pondering when to hold an election, possibly in May after the enactment of the state budget for 2009/10, which starts on April 1. The Asahi survey showed 60 percent of voters want an election as soon as possible.

"He cannot implement big and bold policies because he doesn't have a mandate from the people," Democratic Party leader Ichiro Ozawa told a private TV broadcaster.

Analysts said Aso's sagging support would make him wary of an early poll, but added that postponing a vote was unlikely to help.

"The longer an election is postponed, the fewer seats the LDP will win," former financial services minister Yoshimi Watanabe told a news conference on Monday. "The LDP is like the Titanic approaching a huge iceberg that is the election," said Watanabe, who left the party last month over policy differences with Aso.

Aso, 68, is Japan's third prime minister since the last general election in 2005. His two predecessors resigned after seeing their support slide in the face of a stalemate born of a divided parliament, where an emboldened opposition controls the upper chamber and can delay bills and stymie policies.

With voters weary of the parade of premiers and no obvious ruling party alternative to succeed him, Aso could hang on for months, analysts said.

"If Aso cannot call an election for May, then the LDP will look for someone to replace him," said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Tokyo's Keio University.

"In that case, they will bring forward the LDP leadership race to August (from September) and hold an election close to the (Sept. 10) end of lawmakers' terms."

Aso has come under fresh fire this week from the opposition and some in the LDP itself for saying he had opposed a plan to privatise the giant postal system, a pillar of past reforms.

Then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi turned the election in 2005 into a referendum on the privatisation plan, and led the ruling bloc to a huge victory seen as a mandate for his reforms.

The LDP, however, has been drifting away from Koizumi's reforms and the global financial crisis has strengthened the case for a bigger government role in the economy.