ZAGREB, CROATIA -

- Machiavelli said: `When a ruler is in great trouble, he has to surprise everyone with a total turnover – professor at the Zagreb Faculty of Political Sciences and political analyst Damir Grubisa said.

Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader announced on Wednesday that he was resigning for personal reasons.

Kosor has been sacrificed. If he [Sanader] wanted a male premier who would keep things going, he would take [current Sea, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Bozidar] Kalmeta, his most powerful minister. Sanader will remain a puppet master, the one who pulls all the strings on a marionette.

Damir Grubisa

Grubisa does not think the reason for the premier`s resignation lies in medical charts and results, but he believes that the premier`s move was taken in “his prime”.

- This is a premeditated act. Sanader abandoned the ship even before it started to sink – Grubisa went on, pointing out that with this move, Sanader has secured himself not just running at the presidential elections, but victory as well.

Kosor was sacrificed?

Regarding Jadranka Kosor, deputy PM and Sanader`s successor as the premier, professor Grubisa called the act of appointing her “sacrifice”.

- Kosor has been sacrificed. If he [Sanader] wanted a male premier who would keep things going, he would take Kalmeta, his most powerful minister. Sanader will remain a puppet master, the one who pulls all the strings on a marionette – Grubisa concluded.

Grubisa`s colleague from the faculty, professor Ante Barisic believes that the reason for Sanader`s resignation is medical.

- This has nothing to do with the elections, considering the announcements of running for president. The background is health – Barisic said. He sees Bozidar Kalmeta as the premier, who is the current Minister of Sea, Transport and Infrastructure, and no other candidate.

Consequences for the political and economic system

Politologist Andjelko Milardovic did not wish to discuss about the causes and reasons of Sanader`s resignation, because “we cannot know anything”, as he put it.

- There will be consequences for the political and economic system and a way out can only be Constitutional, which means that the new premier can be chosen from the current coalition potential – Milardovic said, adding that “whatever the case many be and whoever is chosen, it won`t be easy”.

According to Milardovic, a successor would be someone who is “familiar” with economy and the new cabinet has to be one of “crisis management”.

Still, he did not say whether he believes that Ivo Sanader was not familiarised with economy.

Ivo Banac, president of the Croatian Helsinki Committee believes that there is a possibility of Sanader becoming active in politics once again. This is the “only thing we can grasp”, according to him.

I am not convinced that Kosor will remain at the party top because she is a woman and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is a patriarchal party.

Zarko Puhovski

- Everything else is a puzzle – Banac said, refraining himself from guessing about the presidential elections, pointing out that this period could be brief or very long and that patience is required.

Zarko Puhovski, professor of the Zagreb Faculty of Philosophy, believes the governing coalition’s survival is questionable and that Sanader`s resignation was a “shock reminiscent of an emergency”.

- I would consider this resignation justified only if a serious illness was in question – Puhovski said, adding that whoever takes on Sanader`s post, they would be faced with a social crisis. He expressed doubt in Jadranka Kosor`s position, who is Sanader`s “number one”.

- I am not convinced that Kosor will remain at the party top because she is a woman and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is a patriarchal party- Puhovski prognosed. He concluded by mentioning Bozidar Kalmeta, saying that “he does not stand a chance because he flirted with Ivic Pasalic before”. Ivic Pasalic was Ivo Sanader`s counter-candidate at the elections for party president. After loosing the elections, Pasalic left the HDZ and founded his own fraction, Hrvatski Blok (Croatian Bloc).

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